A shortened trading week, combined with multiple settlement holidays, is likely to increase volatility in the Indian stock market. According to Anand James, the prevailing “sell-on-rise” trend continues to dominate the movement of Nifty 50, making the market environment fragile.
Nifty Strategy for Expiry Week
Recent trends indicate that Nifty has struggled to sustain above its 10-day simple moving average (SMA), highlighting a persistent bearish bias. The sharp decline seen after recent attempts to hold above this level has widened the trading range, bringing the 22,200–21,900 zone into focus.
However, there are early signs of potential reversal. Around 30% of Nifty stocks are still trading above their 10-day SMA, and the chop index suggests a possible breakout from the current range. If the index sustains above 22,680 or moves past 23,300, an upside target of 23,800—and even 24,440 in an optimistic scenario—could come into play. Failing this, the bearish outlook may continue.
Impact of a 3-Day Trading Week
Shortened trading weeks often lead to delayed reactions to global developments. Historical data shows that when Indian markets operate for fewer days while global markets remain open, price adjustments tend to be sharper and more compressed.
This week’s three trading sessions are further complicated by settlement holidays on March 31, April 1, and April 3. These disruptions could limit effective risk management, prompting traders to focus more on intraday strategies rather than delivery-based trades. Any global shocks may not be fully reflected immediately, increasing the likelihood of sharp moves or gap openings later.
Sector Watch: IT and PSU Banks
The Nifty IT Index has shown relative strength, supported by defensive buying at lower levels. While the index has found support around 28,500–29,000, it remains below key resistance levels and trendlines, indicating that the recovery is still fragile. A sustained move above 31,500–32,000 is needed for a confirmed trend reversal.
On the other hand, the Nifty PSU Bank Index continues to face pressure. The index is trading near the 8,200–8,300 zone, a crucial support area. While the long-term trend remains intact above 7,500, recent price action suggests ongoing consolidation after a strong rally.
A hold above 8,000 is essential to prevent further downside, while resistance is seen at 8,800–9,000. Major banking stocks have broken key support levels, indicating short-term weakness.
Top Stock Picks for the Week
Bharti Airtel
- View: Buy
- Target: 1930
- Stop Loss: 1798
The stock is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong uptrend, holding above key support levels. A move above 1900 could trigger further upside.
Karur Vysya Bank
- View: Buy
- Target: 307–315
- Stop Loss: 282
The stock is showing signs of a technical rebound after correction, with potential for a short-term relief rally if resistance levels are breached.
Conclusion
With limited trading sessions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, traders should remain cautious. Volatility is expected to stay elevated, and a disciplined approach focusing on key levels and risk management will be crucial in navigating the market this week.
Originally published on 24×7-news.com.
