With US President Donald Trump hinting at an upcoming trade deal with India, trade experts are urging New Delhi to focus on one key demand first — the rollback of the 25% penalty tariff imposed on Russian crude oil. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India should ensure this rollback before finalizing any comprehensive trade pact with Washington.
Trump’s Remarks Signal Renewed Engagement
During the swearing-in of Sergio Gor as the new US Ambassador to India at the Oval Office, President Trump suggested that ties with India are improving and a new deal may be close.
“So right now, they don’t love me, but they’ll love us again,” Trump said, adding, “I think we’re pretty close to doing a deal that’s good for everybody,” without offering details.
He also acknowledged that India has “substantially reduced” its imports of Russian crude — a factor that could strengthen India’s case for tariff relief.
GTRI’s 3-Point Strategy for India
The Global Trade Research Initiative recommends a measured three-step plan for India to regain trade parity with the US:
- End sanctioned Russian oil imports:
GTRI notes that Trump himself has admitted India has already done this, marking the completion of the first step. - Seek tariff rollback before further talks:
India should press Washington to withdraw the 25% tariff on “Russian oil,” which has inflated the effective US duty burden on Indian exports to nearly 50%.
Reducing this to 25% could revive competitiveness in key sectors such as textiles, gems & jewellery, and pharmaceuticals. - Resume trade talks after tariff correction:
Once duties are normalized, India can negotiate a balanced, long-term trade agreement similar to those with the EU, targeting average industrial tariffs around 15%.
Awaiting the Supreme Court’s Verdict
GTRI also advises India to wait for the US Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs. The Court is reviewing whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) gives presidents such sweeping tariff authority. Several justices have expressed skepticism.
If the Court strikes down these tariffs, they would automatically become unlawful, improving India’s bargaining position in future trade talks.
Where India-US Trade Talks Stand Now
Commerce & Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has confirmed that India seeks a “fair, equitable, and balanced” trade agreement with the US.
“We are working for a good trade deal in the interest of India… it could happen any day, tomorrow, next month, or next year,” Goyal said.
A senior government official told The Times of India that most discussions have been completed and no fresh rounds are scheduled.
“They (the US) have to get back to us. It’s the most comprehensive, WTO-compliant treaty compared to any other nation,” the official said, adding that talks were held carefully, keeping in mind the sensitivities of key sectors.
After five rounds of official-level negotiations — involving both Goyal and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar — the groundwork for a potential agreement appears set. What remains now is the US response — and possibly, a Supreme Court verdict that could redefine the rules of global trade.
Originally published on 24×7-news.com.
